Seeing What's Next: Using the Theories of Innovation to Predict Industry Change

Clayton M. Christensen applies the frameworks of disruptive innovation to the practice of forecasting market shifts. The book details three distinct lenses for analysis: the signals of change, the competitive battle, and strategic choices. By examining historical patterns in the telecommunications and healthcare industries, the authors demonstrate how to identify when undershot customers create opportunities for performance improvements and when overshot customers invite low-end disruption. The text explains the motivation of incumbent firms to flee toward high-margin segments, leaving the bottom of the market open to new entrants.

This book provides corporate strategists and venture capitalists with a systematic method for evaluating the long-term viability of startups and established competitors. Readers gain a set of diagnostic tools to determine whether a specific technological shift will favor an existing leader or a new challenger. Instead of relying on intuition, the audience learns to categorize market data into causal patterns, allowing them to predict which business models will likely dominate a changing industry landscape.