Farsighted: How We Make the Decisions That Matter the Most

Steven Johnson examines the cognitive science and history behind long-term decision making, focusing on choices where the consequences unfold over years rather than minutes. He argues against relying on simple pros-and-cons lists, instead advocating for a multifaceted deliberate process. This framework involves mapping out complex variables, simulating potential outcomes through scenario planning, and consulting diverse perspectives to minimize individual blind spots. Johnson illustrates these methods by analyzing the 2011 raid on the bin Laden compound and the urban planning behind New York’s High Line park.

This book serves professionals, policy makers, and individuals facing significant life pivots, such as career changes or major relocations. Readers look for structured ways to bypass instinctive biases and emotional impulses when the stakes are high. By finishing this title, a reader gains a toolkit of specific mental exercises, including the pre-mortem technique and the use of red teams, to stress-test their logic. They walk away with a disciplined system for predicting future challenges and making more calculated, far-reaching commitments.